In Buenos Aires, writings recorded a virtually zero variation in December, with a year-on-year drop of 0.3%, after a largely positive year. In the recreation and tourism sector, indicators once again showed fragility. The Private Consumption Index (ICP-UP) for January confirms that household spending began 2026 without a clear boost, and that although it managed to stabilize after several months of declines, the persistence of year-on-year drops in key indicators reflects a scenario of greater caution. The Business School of the University of Palermo (UP) presented a new edition of the Private Consumption Index (ICP-UP), which was accessed by the Argentine News Agency, registering a slight monthly increase of 0.1% in January. However, in year-on-year comparison, the indicator showed a 1.5% drop, the second consecutive one, after the decline observed in December. Last year, the Consumption Indicator (IC) of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC) recorded an average increase of 2.5% compared to 2024, although December showed a year-on-year drop of 1.4%. Other studies indicated an annual growth of 10.3%, placing consumption at 2022/2023 levels. However, signs of deceleration appeared towards the end of the year, and simultaneously, inflation cut the downward inertia. Sequence of declines In January last, in seasonally adjusted terms, the UP index practically maintained its level compared to the previous month, thus stopping the sequence of declines recorded in the last semester. Even so, the start of 2026 did not show clear signs of a consumption recovery. "The behavior of the index suggests that household spending continues to go through a phase of caution, with heterogeneous dynamics between sectors and without a clear engine of expansion," said Gabriel Foglia, dean of the UP Business School. The latest available data on mass consumption reflected a mixed scenario. Fuel sales showed a recovery towards the end of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in December. However, beef consumption fell again, with a 6.5% year-on-year drop, closing the semester in negative territory. The combination of these indicators suggests that spending on essential goods continues to be conditioned by adjustment decisions within households. On the contrary, while toy sales maintained positive rates and clothing and footwear sales showed slight increases in both shopping centers and supermarkets, consumer-linked loans maintained positive rates, although they continued to show a marked deceleration. Card purchases, for example, grew 11.7% year-on-year in January, a significantly slower pace than observed towards the end of 2025, when increases were around 20%. Durable goods Other signs of the contraction were observed in durable goods, such as automobiles and real estate. Car registrations fell 4.2% year-on-year, interrupting a sequence of 17 consecutive months of growth. The index for traditional restaurants in the City of Buenos Aires recorded a 2.3% year-on-year drop in December, after the particular improvement observed in November. "The data for the first month of the year show that consumption continues to be in a fragile zone. Despite the drop, activity levels remained above the records of the 2020-2024 period. In contrast, motorcycle registrations continued to show dynamism, with a 15.3% year-on-year growth and accumulating five consecutive months of positive rates. Mortgage credit, in turn, sustained its expansion, although the real estate market maintains signs of moderation. The monthly stabilization is a relevant signal, but it still coexists with indicators that reflect less dynamism and more defensive decisions by households," concluded Foglia. With this new report, the University of Palermo consolidated the Private Consumption Index as a monthly reference to anticipate the evolution of household spending and provide a more immediate reading of the economic pulse.
